Analysis of Phase Space Density of Relativistic Electrons in the Magnetosphere and Forecast of MeV Electrons at Geostationary Orbit

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2716 Energetic Particles, Precipitating, 2720 Energetic Particles, Trapped, 2722 Forecasting, 2730 Magnetosphere: Inner, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

Radial diffusion or radial transport, which conserves the first and usually the second adiabatic invariants while violating the third, is usually used to explain enhancements of the radiation belt electrons by transporting electrons from further out in the magnetosphere where the phase space density at a particular value of the first and second adiabatic invariants is thought to be higher. A model based on the standard radial diffusion equation assuming a higher phase space density of the electrons for the same first adiabatic invariant at its outer boundary (L=11.5) has reproduced well the variations of the MeV electrons at geostationary orbit. However, the phase space density radial profile in the model does not always increase monotonically with L. Rather it oftens shows local peaks between L=6.6 and L=11.5, which is due to the smaller average life time of the electrons at larger L. The implication of these local peaks will be discussed in detail. Also a real time forecast of MeV electrons at geostationary orbit with 1-2 days in advance given knowledge of the solar wind will be also presented and discussed.

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