Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsm51d..11w&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SM51D-11
Physics
2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms
Scientific paper
A study of the predictability of temporal fluctuations in auroral--zone ground magnetic fields is presented. The fluctuation measure considered is the absolute value of the horizontal field time derivative (dH/dt) averaged over a 15--30~minute interval. This averaging time allows for a prediction lead time of approximately 30--45~minutes, depending on the solar wind speed. The fluctuation level is predicted using a neural network mapping of solar wind plasma and field data from the ACE satellite. Various solar wind inputs to the network are considered to determine which variables contain the most information, or drives, ground magnetic field fluctuations. The predictability of ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are responsible for ground induction currents (GICs), is shown to depend strongly on both local time and latitude. For some magnetometers, the predictability is found to be highest at local times that have the highest average fluctuation level and lowest at local times that have the lowest average fluctuation level. A maximum of 50% of the variability in a time series composed of 30~minute averages of |dH/dt| can be explained by the solar wind. When time delayed values of the fluctuation level at nearby magnetometer stations are included, up to 70% of of the variance in the |dH/dt| time series can be predicted.
Horton Wendell
Klimas Alex J.
Vassiliadis Dimitris
Weigel Robert S.
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