Magnetic Cloud Bz and Speed vs. Dst: Predicting Magnetic Storm Intensity and Timing in Real Time

Details Magnetic Cloud Bz and Speed vs. Dst: Predicting Magnetic Storm Intensity and Timing in Real Time Magnetic Cloud Bz and Speed vs. Dst: Predicting Magnetic Storm Intensity and Timing in Real Time

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsh31a0706w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SH31A-0706

Physics

2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2162 Solar Cycle Variations (7536), 2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 2722 Forecasting, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

We investigate geomagnetic activity that was associated with magnetic cloud events cover many years and use the results to suggest how some solar wind parameters can be used to predict intensity and timing of geomagnetic storms over an optimum period. From OMNI hourly average data, 135 magnetic clouds identified between the years 1965 and 1998 were investigated. It was found that for all magnetic cloud events the correlation coefficient (c.c.) between storm intensity (Dst) and Bz, solar wind speed, and equatorial electric field (VBs) were -0.86, -0.58, and -0.88, respectively. Hence, it appears that the role of magnetic cloud speed in predicting storm intensity is a minor one. However, the speed plays an important role in predicting Dst for those cloud events with high solar wind speed, V >600 km/s. The c.c. for Dst vs. Bz increases dramatically when the solar wind speed exceeds 600 km/s. For example, the c.c. for Dst vs. Bz is 0.99 for speed between 600 km/s and 750 km/s (15 events). During the next part of the solar cycle (years of 2002-2012), negative Bz is generally expected to occur generally late in the cloud. Therefore, since this period it provides the best opportunity, via cloud modeling, to predict when Bz will reach minimum (and the minimum value itself) many hours later, based on only near real-time observations of the early (positive Bz) part of the cloud.

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