Physics
Scientific paper
May 1984
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984jgr....89.3023f&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 89, May 1, 1984, p. 3023-3027.
Physics
47
Secular Variations, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Auroras, Maximum Entropy Method, Power Spectra
Scientific paper
The existence of a 60-100 year periodic variation in solar and/or solar-terrestrial phenomena has been a matter of dispute for many years. A wide variety of data sets previously have been analyzed, and the results of the analyses have been interpreted as showing evidence either for or against such a variation. However, all data sets that are proxy for solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 AU show variations consistent with a period of about 88 years. Here, it is reported that a maximum entropy spectral analysis of the number of aurora reported per decade in Europe and the Orient from 450 A.D. to 1450 A.D., shows a strong stable line at a 88.4 + or - 0.7 years. Since the data set contains 11 cycles, this analysis establishes the reality of the 'long cycle' for 1000 years. The mean amplitude and phase are then estimated from a superposed epoch analysis. The mean amplitude was 2.2 auroral reports per decade and the last minimum phase in these data occurred between 1403 A.D. and 1413 A.D.
Feynman Joan
Fougere Paul F.
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