Tracking and impact prediction of Earth-Crossing-Objects (ECO's) on a collision course with Earth

Details Tracking and impact prediction of Earth-Crossing-Objects (ECO's) on a collision course with Earth Tracking and impact prediction of Earth-Crossing-Objects (ECO's) on a collision course with Earth

Dec 1994

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994aifo.reptq....b&link_type=abstract

M.S. Thesis Air Force Inst. of Tech., Wright-Patterson AFB, OH. School of Engineering.

Physics

Asteroids, Celestial Mechanics, Cometary Collisions, Comets, Impact Prediction, Meteorite Collisions, Space Observations (From Earth), Three Body Problem, Trajectory Analysis, Covariance, Earth Orbital Environments, Equations Of Motion, Radar Tracking, Space Surveillance (Ground Based), State Vectors

Scientific paper

This study investigated the effectiveness of earth-based angles only observations in determining the orbit of various hypothetical earth-crossing-objects (ECO's). 'True' trajectories were simulated specifically for earth-crossing-comets (ECC's) by numerically integrating in a restricted three body system. Starting at earth impact points, the state vectors were 'reverse-propagated' to a proposed detection time. Observations (obs), with state-of-the-art accuracy, were then simulated with error induced by a Gaussian random number generator; these were used in a least-squares differential corrector to estimate the positions of the ECO's. State vectors and covariance matrices were then propagated to the impact times and axis lengths of the one sigma impact footprint were calculated. Varied amounts of data were fed into the differential corrector and it was determined that earth-based obs alone may be ineffective in predicting an ECC's orbit.

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