The influence of solar forcing trends on global mean temperature since 1861

Physics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

IT has been suggested1-5 that solar variability may be a significant contributor to the long-term warming trend that has been observed in global mean surface air temperature since the mid-nineteenth century. Here we consider the role of long-term solar irradiance changes associated with sunspot fluctuations, extending an earlier analysis by Reid4. We find that solar variability is unlikely to have accounted for more than a small fraction of the observed warming.

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