Longterm Prediction of Solar Activity Using the Combined Method

Details Longterm Prediction of Solar Activity Using the Combined Method Longterm Prediction of Solar Activity Using the Combined Method

Jan 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999soph..184..213h&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, v. 184, Issue 1, p. 213-218 (1999).

Physics

16

Scientific paper

The Combined Method is a non-parametric regression technique for long-term prediction of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Starting from a solar minimum, a prediction of the succeeding maximum is obtained by using a dynamo-based relation between the geomagnetic aa index and succeeding solar maxima. Then a series of predictions is calculated by computing the weighted average of past cycles of similar level. This technique leads to a good prediction performance, particularly in the ascending phase of the solar cycle where purely statistical methods tend to be inaccurate. For cycle23 the combined method predicts a maximum of 160 (in terms of smoothed sunspot number) early in the year 2000.

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