A prediction for the onset of cycle 23

Details A prediction for the onset of cycle 23 A prediction for the onset of cycle 23

Feb 1993

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1993jgr....98.1333w&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 98, no. A2, p. 1333-1337.

Physics

7

Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity Effects, Sunspot Cycle, Nimbus 7 Satellite, Solar Magnetic Field, Solar Rotation

Scientific paper

The present sunspot cycle (number 22) is now in decline, having had its onset in September 1986, its primary maximum in July 1989, and a secondary maximum (of lower value) in 1991. Dependent upon whether cycle 22 is a short-or 1ong-period cycle, onset for cycle 23 w/II occur, respectively, either prior or subsequent to about July 1997. A relation is described, involving the slopes (i.e., the average rates of change in smoothed sunspot number values) as seen during the ascending and descending portions of the sunspot cycle, which appears to clarify, at least for cycle 22, the ambiguity of cycle length. In particular, the relation strongly suggests that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle and that onset for cycle 23 will come early rather than late, with the most probable date for cycle 23 onset being May-November 1996.

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