Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Details Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Feb 1993

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1993fmet.symp..319a&link_type=abstract

In its Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1992 p 319-335 (SEE N93-24694 09-13)

Physics

Forecasting, Nonlinearity, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity, Time Series Analysis, Extraction, Solar Flux, Solar Physics

Scientific paper

This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

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