Impact of cross-equatorial flow on intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Physics

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Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Land/Atmosphere Interactions (1218, 1843, 3322), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology

Scientific paper

850-hPa zonal wind gradient anomaly between the region-1 [Equation-25°N 30°E-75°E] and region-2 [Equation-10°S 30°E-75°E] is used to represent the cross-equatorial flow. Long-term daily mean of 1st June to 30th September, for the period 1951-2000, of gradient time series is correlated with Indian summer monsoon daily mean rainfall, for the same period. The correlation coefficient is 0.92, which is statistically significant at 1% level. In order to understand the impact of 850-hPa zonal wind gradient on daily rainfall activity over India during monsoon season, the composite analysis of daily rainfall activity over India during extreme positive and negative 850-hPa zonal wind gradient anomaly is performed. This analysis reveals that when 850-hPa zonal wind gradient anomaly in last 20 days of May is extremely positive then almost all days in June show above-normal rainfall activity and vice versa. The correlation coefficients between 20-day mean of rainfall departure and previous 20-day mean of 850-hPa zonal wind gradient anomaly, for the period 1951-2003, are computed. This correlation analysis suggests that statistically significant (at 5% level) relationship is seen only up to the 30th June rainfall and from this point onward the relationship becomes insignificant. The result also indicates that 850-hPa zonal wind gradient anomaly, in last 20-days of May, is important for daily rainfall activity over India during onset phase of monsoon but, when the monsoon season sets in then it loses its significance.

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