Spring frost risk in a changing climate

Details Spring frost risk in a changing climate Spring frost risk in a changing climate

Jun 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3512703r&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 12, CiteID L12703

Physics

4

Global Change: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), Biogeosciences: Ecosystems, Structure And Dynamics (4815), Biogeosciences: Modeling, Biogeosciences: Plant Ecology (1851), Hydrology: Extreme Events

Scientific paper

While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic-crossing properties of a coupled temperature-phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk).

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