Initial Modeling Studies of C/NOFS Observations

Physics

Scientific paper

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2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2437 Ionospheric Dynamics, 2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

One of the vital elements of the C/NOFS (Communication and Navigation Outage Forecast System) program is the modeling and forecasting of low-latitude structures that can produce radio scintillation using physics- based forecast codes. To describe the extent and structure of the turbulent plasma plumes caused by interchange instabilities in the low-latitude ionosphere, a three-dimensional model of the plumes has been developed. To better reflect the day-to-day variability of the occurrence of the plumes, this model is closely coupled to a time-dependent model of the ambient ionosphere which is designed to be initialized by assimilation of data from the C/NOFS satellite. The system of models has been implemented in the C/NOFS Data Center to provide operational scintillation forecasts. After describing the models, I will present a sampling of modeling results using early satellite data, addressing the ambient plasma density as well as plasma plume structure.

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