Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.u22a..01b&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U22A-01
Physics
1105 Quaternary Geochronology, 1616 Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), 3344 Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900)
Scientific paper
It has been just over 40 years since Nick Shackleton submitted his PhD thesis on, 'The Measurement of Palaeotemperatures in the Quaternary Era'. Only a few years earlier, Libby was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work on radiocarbon dating. Looking back, we recognize that these were seminal events which provided essential insight and tools for generations of future researchers, opening the window to our interpretation of the earth's recent history. Research in paleoclimatology and paleoceanography has made enormous advances since these early steps were taken, and our understanding of how climates have changed, and why, has exploded. Hardly a week goes by without a new and interesting record or model simulation being published. Yet gaps remain, and new questions continue to emerge. New analytical techniques provide higher and higher resolution data sets, yet chronology remains a challenge in many records. This is especially important in deciphering times of abrupt change in earth history, when the synchronism of geographically dispersed events (or lack thereof) is of critical importance. The role of abrupt climate change in driving societal change is also controversial. Certainly there is evidence from many regions for abrupt, unprecedented and persistent climate anomalies for which we commonly have no explanation, and such episodes appear to have had significant effects of societies in the past. Deciphering the causes of such episodes, and how they affected societies has important implications for our understanding of the past and the future. Understanding the role of forcing and feedbacks is also essential. For example, many questions remain about the role of solar forcing. If small changes in solar irradiance have driven climate changes (as many have argued) large feedbacks must be involved. Modelling may help in resolving such questions. Many new proxies have been developed, though often our understanding of how these relate to climate is rudimentary at best. In fact, this is true even for some of our most cherished proxies. Improvements in the calibration of these proxies, through both mechanistic (process-based) studies and modeling will pay dividends and help avoid misinterpretations and the pursuit of archives that may not yield useful results. Paleoclimatologists and paleoceanographers have made spectacular discoveries over the past 40 years. Although anthropogenic effects will increasingly dominate the climate system in coming decades, establishing a firm understanding of pre-anthropogenic climate variability is still an essential challenge: whatever anthropogenic climate changes occur in the future, they will be superimposed on, and interact with, underlying natural variability. Therefore, to anticipate future changes, we must continue our efforts to understand how and why climates varied in the past.
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