Forecast for the remainder of the Leonid storm season

Details Forecast for the remainder of the Leonid storm season Forecast for the remainder of the Leonid storm season

Nov 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001esasp.495...83j&link_type=abstract

In: Proceedings of the Meteoroids 2001 Conference, 6 - 10 August 2001, Kiruna, Sweden. Ed.: Barbara Warmbein. ESA SP-495, Noordw

Physics

1

Meteor Storms, Forcasts

Scientific paper

The dust trails of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle lead to Leonid storms on Earth, threatening satellites in orbit. Here we derive a model that accounts in detail for the observed properties of the dust trails evolved by the comet at previous oppositions. The model is interpreted as a projection of the comet light curve and the effects of a precessing comet nucleus. We find that the directional ejection of dust by a northerly jet causes the 1767-dust trail to be closer to Earth's orbit in 2001 than originally thought: increasing expected peak Leonid rates to a significant storm for North American observers. Predictions for the 2002 storms are less affected.

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