Earthquakes rupturing the Chelungpu fault in Taiwan are time predictable

Details Earthquakes rupturing the Chelungpu fault in Taiwan are time predictable Earthquakes rupturing the Chelungpu fault in Taiwan are time predictable

Mar 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3206316w&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 6, CiteID L06316

Physics

Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics (1242), Seismology: Paleoseismology (8036), Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)

Scientific paper

On September 20, 1999, the Ms7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake ruptured the Chelungpu fault in central Taiwan. The time predictable model is able to describe earthquakes rupturing the fault during the past 1900 years. The average recurrence periods and total slip rates are: 1900 years and 3.8 mm/yr for the northern segment of the fault and 630 years and 5.8 mm/yr for the southern one. About 30% strains, caused by tectonic loading, are released during failures of the fault.

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