Recipe for predicting the IMF Bz polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms.

Details Recipe for predicting the IMF Bz polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms. Recipe for predicting the IMF Bz polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms.

Nov 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996jatp...58.1805w&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 58, No. 15, p. 1805 - 1814

Physics

4

Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Predictions, Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Solar Radio Radiation

Scientific paper

A three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of solar disturbance caused storms (Wu, 1993; Wu et al., 1996) is used to predict the turning direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at the Earth. More explicitly, the authors examine the polarity of Bz caused by disturbances on the Sun. Three manifestations of solar disturbances, as studied by previous workers, are examined. Firstly, twenty-nine kilometric Type II events, associated with geomagnetic storms, are studied within the context of the 3D model. Then, an additional eleven long-duration X-ray events with radio fluxes greater than 100 solar flux units were examined; these events were not associated with interplanetary Type II events but were also associated with geomagnetic storms. Finally, in situ interplanetary phenomena that caused ten large (Dst < -100 nT, the intensification of the storm) geomagnetic storm episodes near solar maximum are also studied via the Bz predictions of the 3D MHD model. The accuracy of these Bz turning direction predictions is found. The basic 3D MHD model may be valid for a zero-th order prediction scheme.

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