Solar Cycle 23 Activity Forecast: A Look Back

Details Solar Cycle 23 Activity Forecast: A Look Back Solar Cycle 23 Activity Forecast: A Look Back

Jul 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003icrc....6.3617a&link_type=abstract

Proceedings of the 28th International Cosmic Ray Conference. July 31-August 7, 2003. Trukuba, Japan. Under the auspices of the I

Physics

1

Scientific paper

. Solar activity has a bearing on the quality of life issues on Earth. In this high-tech era, it is important that its level be forecast in a reliable manner, well ahead of time to minimize the ensuing adverse economic consequences on Earth. We predicted a moderate cycle 23 with a smo othed sunspot number (SSN) at its maximum (in early 2000): 131.5+33/-20. The status of our forecast was reported at the 27th ICRC, Hamburg, Germany (2001). The maximum smo othed SSNs occurred in April 2000, as predicted. We review the solar and geophysical data as of the end of March 2003 and compare cycle 23 with those observed earlier as well as the lessons learned by us from this exercise.

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