Distribution of extreme solar energetic proton fluxes

Details Distribution of extreme solar energetic proton fluxes Distribution of extreme solar energetic proton fluxes

Feb 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011jastp..73..300r&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 73, Issue 2-3, p. 300-307.

Physics

1

Scientific paper

The knowledge of the high intensity tails of probability distributions that determine the rate of occurrence of extreme events of solar energetic particles is a critical element in the evaluation of hazards for human and robotic space missions. Here instead of the standard approach based on fitting a selected distribution function to the observed data we investigate a different approach, which is based on a study of the scaling properties of the maximum particle flux in time intervals of increasing length. To find the tail of the probability distributions we apply the “Max-Spectrum” method (Stoev, S.A., Michailidis, G., 2006. On the estimation of the heavy-tail exponent in time series using the Max-Spectrum. Technical Report 447, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan) to 1973-1997 IMP-8 proton data and the 1987-2008 GOES data, which cover a wide range of proton energies. We find that both data sets indicate a power-law tail with the power exponents close to 0.6 at least in the energy range 9-60 MeV. The underlying probability distribution is consistent with the Fréchet type (power-law behavior) extreme value distribution. Since the production of high fluxes of energetic particles is caused by fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) this heavy-tailed distribution also means that the Sun generates more fast CMEs than would be expected from a Poissonian-type process.

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