Stochastic Modeling of Fluctuations in Large-scale Properties of the Solar Wind or the Magnetosphere-ionosphere System

Details Stochastic Modeling of Fluctuations in Large-scale Properties of the Solar Wind or the Magnetosphere-ionosphere System Stochastic Modeling of Fluctuations in Large-scale Properties of the Solar Wind or the Magnetosphere-ionosphere System

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsh43a1633r&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SH43A-1633

Physics

Geophysics

4400 Nonlinear Geophysics (3200, 6944, 7839), 4430 Complex Systems, 4480 Self-Organized Criticality, 4490 Turbulence (3379, 4568, 7863)

Scientific paper

It has recently been shown that fluctuations of global quantities (let us name it X) in certain avalanching and turbulent systems can be described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a colored noise term with a diffusion coefficient depending on X. The equation also contains a deterministic drift term, which keeps X within certain limits. This SDE has been determined for the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model in [1], and for the Zhang-sandpile and a simulated two-dimensional (2D) Navier-Stokes turbulence in [2] (see the poster by M. Rypdal in this session), and may provide criteria for distinguishing between sandpile avalanching and 2D turbulence from observational time-series data. In this contribution we employ this modeling technique to observational time-series data which are believed to reflect large-scale properties of the solar wind or the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. However, time-series analysis of quantities like the interplanetary magnetic field, disturbed storm-time index, and auroral electrojet index , reveal a multifractal structure. Thus, stochastic modeling of these signals requires that we replace the colored noise with a multifractal source term in the SDE. We demonstrate how this kind of analysis and modeling can be employed to characterize the dynamics of different elements in the Sun-Earth interaction. [1] M. Rypdal and K. Rypdal, arXiv: 0710.4010 [2] M. Rypdal and K. Rypdal, arXiv: 0807.3416

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