Static Coulomb failure function and aftershocks of 1995 Kobe earthquake: A statistical test

Physics

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Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics (1242), Seismology: Earthquake Ground Motions And Engineering Seismology, Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)

Scientific paper

The hypothesis that aftershocks are triggered by a change of the static Coulomb Failure stress is statistically tested for 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) Earthquake. We focus on the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks for the first 7 months and investigate whether these mechanisms are consistent with the static CFF triggering hypothesis. Two slip distribution models for the mainshock are tested and both explain focal mechanisms of more than 3/4 of the aftershocks. From a bootstrap statistical test, however, we find that such a high consistency rate between the observation and CFF based prediction is not statistically significant. The static CFF triggering is thus not a statistically strong hypothesis for 1995 Kobe aftershocks.

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