Models for Flare Statistics and the Waiting-time Distribution of Solar Flare Hard X-ray Bursts

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Scientific paper

In a previous study (Wheatland, Sturrock, McTiernan 1998), a waiting-time distribution was constructed for solar flare hard X-ray bursts observed by the ICE/ISEE-3 spacecraft. A comparison of the observed distribution with that of a time-dependent Poisson process indicated an overabundance of short waiting times (10~s -- 10~min), implying that the hard X-ray bursts are not independent events. Models for flare statistics assume or predict that flares are independent events -- in particular the avalanche model makes this specific prediction. The results of the previous study may be reconciled with the avalanche picture if individual flares produce several distinct bursts of hard X-ray emission. A detailed comparison of the avalanche model and the ICE/ISEE-3 waiting-time distribution is presented here.

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