On the long-term secular increase in sunspot number

Physics

Scientific paper

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Secular Variations, Sunspot Cycle, Correlation Coefficients, Regression Analysis

Scientific paper

Based on the secular fit, cycle 22 should have Rmax= 74.5±49.0, Rsum= 4995.5±3212.6, and Rmean= 36.2±25.0. Compared to the mean values of the observed sunspot record (106.2, 6755.9, and 51.8, respectively), cycle 22 should be about average to just below average. Compared to cycle 21 (155.4, 9991.5, and 81.2, respectively), cycle 22 should be smaller.

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