Secular Change in the Coupled Thermosphere and Ionosphere System

Details Secular Change in the Coupled Thermosphere and Ionosphere System Secular Change in the Coupled Thermosphere and Ionosphere System

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agusmsa51c..04q&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #SA51C-04

Physics

1600 Global Change, 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325), 1616 Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

Scientific paper

Observed long-term changes in the upper atmosphere have been attributed to increasing of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, which cools the mesosphere and thermosphere. There has also been evidence [e.g., Lastovica et al., Science, 314, 1253, 2006] indicating that changes in the ionosphere accompany the neutral atmosphere changes, including a slight decrease in E-region altitude and small increases in the maximum electron density of E-region and F1-region. However, trends in the peak electron density and peak electron density height of F2- region have been controversial. Using a global mean upper atmosphere model, CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, and solar variation based on a proxy model, we have calculated the secular change of thermosphere neutral density. The model result is compared to trend estimates of thermosphere density derived from satellite drag observations, showing good agreement. Sensitivity studies show that in the upper thermosphere, the effect of CO2 increases is much greater than effects from changes in CH4, H2O and O3, etc., accounting for nearly 90% of upper thermosphere density change. We have also used the model to confirm the expected trends in the ionosphere E-region and F1-region. The non-geomagnetic trend of the height of peak electron density in the F2-region is predicted to be negative but the non-geomagnetic trend of the peak electron density of the F2-region can be either positive or negative, depending on solar activity.

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