Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Sep 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006dps....38.1108s&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #38, #11.08; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 38, p.496
Mathematics
Logic
Scientific paper
Ad hoc proposals for periodicity in Jovian atmospheric activity are not uncommon (Hockey 1991). However, predicted periods based on theory or numerical simulation are rare. Here we test one such proposal (Marcus 2004) against historical records using reports of large, high-albedo ovals or "spots" as an indicator of atmospheric activity. These were gleaned from the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (published continually, 1827 - present). Care was taken in reading time, positional, and morphological descriptions so as to tabulate the number of unique spots per apparition, as opposed to multiple observations of the same spot. A single spot was counted once each apparition, regardless of its duration. We excluded the Great Red Spot and Great Red Spot Hollow from consideration. While the majority of the tracked spots reside in the southern hemisphere, it was not possible to unambiguously identify storms of the White Ovals' size and latitude in the reports. However, if the 1938 appearance of the White Ovals marks the beginning of a 60 to 70-year period in Jovian atmospheric activity, a similar, contiguous minimum in the number of spots should have taken place in the second half of the nineteenth century. We find no statistically significant variation in the number of spots from 1850, when records of them commence, to 1900. Moreover, the flat slope of the resulting curve suggests that this survey is not biased by the number of observers, the intervals over which they observed, or improvements in instrumentation; that is, the historical record examined documents a consistent fraction of all spots visible from Earth, to a certain resolution limit.
Hockey, T. (1991) Nineteenth Century Investigations of Periodicities in the Jovian Atmosphere. Vistas in Astronomy 34, 409-414.
Marcus, P. (2004) Prediction of a global change on Jupiter. Nature 428, 828-831.
Hockey Thomas Arnold
Oliphant M.
Simon-Miller Amy A.
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