Close encounters of small bodies and planets

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Collision Parameters, Orbital Elements, Planetary Mass, Probability Theory, Solar System, Two Body Problem, Ejection, Encounters, Escape Velocity, Many Body Problem, Planetary Gravitation, Solar Orbits

Scientific paper

A small body in an orbit which crosses that of a planet may be eliminated by collision or ejected from the solar system. A method is developed for computing the probabilities of these fates. With some simplifying assumptions, the probabilities can be expressed as functions of the relative velocity only, rather than the orbital elements. The ejection probability does not vary greatly with velocity. The results are in agreement with those of Bandermann and Wolstencroft, but not with those of Opik; a reason for this disagreement is suggested. This method can be adapted to compute probabilities of generalized orbital changes. Some applications are discussed.

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