Other
Scientific paper
Jun 1981
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1981icar...46..328j&link_type=abstract
Icarus, vol. 46, June 1981, p. 328-336. Research supported by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Other
10
Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Interstellar Travel, Migration, Monte Carlo Method, Discrete Functions, Milky Way Galaxy, Populations
Scientific paper
Monte Carlo calculations using a wide range of parameter values are presented for the expansion of spacefaring civilizations. The effective expansion velocity, defined as the rate of change of the radius of a sphere containing a number of settlement sites equal to the number of established settlements, is calculated for the case of emigration from a home system where the population has reached a critical level to other settlement sites within a given ship range and subsequent further emigration from the settlement sites when the population reaches its corresponding critical level. Even when the values of the population growth coefficient and the emigration coefficient are very low (0.0001/ year and 10 to the -8th/year, respectively), the migration wavefront is shown to expand at a rate of 0.000014 pc/year, filling the Galaxy in approximately 1 billion years. For more likely values of these parameters (0.001 and 0.0001/year, respectively) a filling time on the order of 60 million years is predicted, which would imply that no migrating civilization has yet arisen in the Galaxy.
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