Mathematics
Scientific paper
Nov 1985
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985pems.agarq....a&link_type=abstract
In AGARD Propagation Effects on Military Systems in the High Latitude Region 17 p (SEE N86-27531 18-32)
Mathematics
Earth Magnetosphere, Geomagnetism, Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Magnetic Storms, Polar Regions, Radio Transmission, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Wind Velocity, Auroras, Electrons, Forecasting, Latitude, Mathematical Models, Variations
Scientific paper
It is shown how the magnetosphere responds to the three components (B sux x, B sub y, B sub z) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and to the power sigma of the solar wind magnetosphere dynamo. In particular, it is shown that the geometry of the auroral oval and the polar cap depends greatly on the magnitude and signs of the IMF three components. Geomagnetic storms result when the dynamo power sigma exceeds approx. 1 million Mwatts. Once such knowledge is available, it is possible to predict the geometry of the auroral oval and the intensity of a geomagnetic storm as a function of time, if one can predict time variations of the solar wind speed and the IMF three components. We demonstrate such a possibility by a computer model study, namely by the first generation numerical forecasting scheme.
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