Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010aas...21534401i&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #215, #344.01; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 42, p.450
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Probabilities of collisions of migrating small bodies and dust particles produced by these bodies with all planets were studied based on the time variations of the orbital evolution of the bodies and particles. The evolution of orbits was integrated until all bodies or particles reached 2000 AU from the Sun or collided with the Sun. (Our papers devoted to the integration can be found on astro-ph and http://faculty.cua.edu/ipatov/list-publications.htm.) Various Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Halley-type comets, long-period comets, trans-Neptunian objects, and asteroids were considered. The total probability of collisions of any considered body or particle with all planets didn't exceed 0.2. The obtained results testify in favor of that the total mass of water delivered from the feeding zone of the giant planets to Earth could be about the total mass of water in Earth's oceans. The ratio of the mass of water delivered to a planet by Jupiter-family comets or Halley-type comets to the mass of the planet can be greater for Mars, Venus, and Mercury, than that for the Earth. This larger mass fraction would result in relatively large ancient oceans on Mars and Venus. The probability of collisions of dust particles produced by comets and asteroids with the Earth, have a maximum 0.001-0.02 at diameters of particles 100 micron. Probabilities of collisions of considered particles with Venus were of the same order of magnitude as those with Earth, and those with Mars were about an order of magnitude smaller. Depending on a source of dust, probabilities of collision of particles with Mercury can be smaller or greater than with Mars. The probability of collisions of considered JFCs with the Sun was 0.02, and dynamical lifetimes of most JFCs didn't exceed 10 Myr. Collisions of bodies with a star can cause variations in observed brightness and spectrum of the star.
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