Close encounters and collisions of comets with the earth

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Celestial Mechanics, Collision Rates, Comets, Earth Orbits, Orbital Elements, Extinction, Impact Damage, Magnitude, Two Body Problem

Scientific paper

A computer search for earth-approaching comets among those listed in Marsden's (1983) updated orbit catalog has identified 36 cases at which minimum separation distance was less than 2500 earth radii. A strong representation of short period comets in the sample is noted, and the constant rate of the close approaching comets in the last 300 years is interpreted to suggest the lack of long-period comets intrinsically fainter than an absolute magnitude of about 11. A comet-earth collision rate derived from the statistics of these close encounters implies an average period of 33-64 million years between any two events. This rate is comparable with the frequency of geologically recent global catastrophes which appear to be associated with extraterrestrial object impacts, such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction 65 million years ago and the late Eocene event 34 million years ago.

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