Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30c..19c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 3, pp. 19-1, CiteID 1119, DOI 10.1029/2002GL015926
Mathematics
Probability
6
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Synoptic-Scale Meteorology
Scientific paper
This paper proposes a potential vorticity intrusion index (denoted as PVI) as an alternative diagnostic tool to study the observed climate variability/trend of the surface temperature. The PVI index measures the percentage area of upper lever PV intrusion in the extratropics at any given time. More (fewer) outbreaks of extreme cold surface air temperature in high latitudes take place when the PVI index is high (low). The interannual variability of the PVI index exhibits a strong QBO- like signal. The high (low) PVI index prevails when the equatorial zonal mean zonal wind at 50 hPa is easterly (westerly). The probability distribution map of PV intrusion activities shows a shift of the preferred regions of frontogenesis from the oceans to the continents when the PVI index is high. This explains directly why more extreme cold events are observed over the northern Eurasian and Northern America continents when the PVI index is high, or the QBO is in the easterly phase.
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