Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3604708u&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 4, CiteID L04708
Mathematics
Probability
7
Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty Quantification (1873), Nonlinear Geophysics: Probability Distributions, Heavy And Fat-Tailed (3265), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238)
Scientific paper
A persistent feature of empirical climate sensitivity estimates is their heavy tailed probability distribution indicating a sizeable probability of high sensitivities. Previous studies make general claims that this upper heavy tail is an unavoidable feature of (i) the Earth system, or of (ii) limitations in our observational capabilities. Here we show that reducing the uncertainty about (i) oceanic heat uptake and (ii) aerosol climate forcing can-in principle-cut off this heavy upper tail of climate sensitivity estimates. Observations of oceanic heat uptake result in a negatively correlated joint likelihood function of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity. This correlation is opposite to the positive correlation resulting from observations of surface air temperatures. As a result, the two observational constraints can rule out complementary regions in the climate sensitivity-vertical diffusivity space, and cut off the heavy upper tail of the marginal climate sensitivity estimate.
Keller Klaus
Urban Nathan M.
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