Prediction of solar proton events based on flare and CME parameters

Details Prediction of solar proton events based on flare and CME parameters Prediction of solar proton events based on flare and CME parameters

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh51b2015p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH51B-2015

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting

Scientific paper

In this study we have examined the probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending on flare (flux, longitude and impulsive time) and CME parameters (linear speed and angular width). For this we used the NOAA SPE list and their associated flare data from 1976 to 2006 and CME data from 1997 to 2006. We found that about 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with SPEs. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for 30W° < L < 90W° is about three times larger than that for 30°E < L < 90°E. The occurrence probability of SPEs for flares with long duration (≥ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). In the case of halo CMEs with V ≥ 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in the case of partial halo CME (120° ≤ AW < 359°) with 400 km/s ≤ V < 1000 km/s, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. The relationships between X-ray flare peak flux and SPE peak flux are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. The relationships between CME speed and SPE peak flux depend on longitude as well as direction parameter. From this study, we suggest a new SPE forecast method with three-steps: (1) SPE occurrence probability prediction according to the contingency tables depending on flare and CME parameters, (2) SPE flux prediction depending on flare and CME parameters, and (3) SPE peak time.

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