Real time modeling of coronal mass ejections using WSA/ENLIL cone model

Details Real time modeling of coronal mass ejections using WSA/ENLIL cone model Real time modeling of coronal mass ejections using WSA/ENLIL cone model

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh23a1935t&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH23A-1935

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7900] Space Weather

Scientific paper

We analyze the results of more than 120 runs modeling coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation in the heliosphere using real time setup for the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination available at the NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The runs were executed in 2010-2011. We compare modeling results with in situ observations of the CMEs at the ACE, Stereo A and Stereo B satellites. We present the statistics of the comparison results in different formats, such as (1) false/true alarm ratio for the CME arrival at the satellite; 2) CME arrival time error; and (3) CME impact strength on the magnetosphere in terms of predicted Kp index.

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