Collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

Rate now

  [ 0.00 ] – not rated yet Voters 0   Comments 0

Details

Scientific paper

We are assessing the collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids in the case of small numbers of observations and/or short observational arcs. Our methods are based on the statistical initial-orbital-ranging technique, which results in a rigorous a posteriori probablility density for the orbital elements. We provide initial upper bounds for the collision probability in the primary close approach together with the actual rigorous collision probabilities both in the primary and subsequent close approaches. Thus, we provide an independent comparison of collision probabilities published, e.g., at the NeoDys WWW-site. We also aim to offer an independent WWW collision probability service at the University of Helsinki in the near future. We are applying the methods to, e.g., the lost asteroid 1998 OX4 for which we find non-vanishing probabilities for a collision with the Earth for a number of years after 2012. We will be looking into the possibility of speeding up both the approximate and rigorous collision probability computation as well as the orbital-ranging technique---also in view of the forthcoming WWW service to be up-to-date.

No associations

LandOfFree

Say what you really think

Search LandOfFree.com for scientists and scientific papers. Rate them and share your experience with other people.

Rating

Collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

     

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-866077

  Search
All data on this website is collected from public sources. Our data reflects the most accurate information available at the time of publication.