Tainted Evidence: Cosmological Model Selection vs. Fitting

Details Tainted Evidence: Cosmological Model Selection vs. Fitting Tainted Evidence: Cosmological Model Selection vs. Fitting

2007-02-20

arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0702542v3

Int.J.Mod.Phys.D17:2315,2008

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

5 pages, 1 figure; v2 minor rephrasings, clarifications; v3 minor changes to match published article under title "Cosmological

Scientific paper

10.1142/S0218271808013881

Interpretation of cosmological data to determine the number and values of parameters describing the universe must not rely solely on statistics but involve physical insight. When statistical techniques such as "model selection" or "integrated survey optimization" blindly apply Occam's Razor, this can lead to painful results. We emphasize that the sensitivity to prior probabilities and to the number of models compared can lead to "prior selection" rather than robust model selection. A concrete example demonstrates that Information Criteria can in fact misinform over a large region of parameter space.

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