Other
Scientific paper
Jan 2000
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000heds.conf..206a&link_type=abstract
Third Annual HEDS-UP Forum, p. 206
Other
Commerce, Cost Effectiveness, Lunar Surface, Propellants, Propulsion System Configurations, Lunar Resources, Space Logistics, Aerobraking, Launch Costs, Operating Costs, Moon, Lunar Orbits, Commercial Spacecraft
Scientific paper
The Moon-based Advanced Reusable Transportation Architecture (MARTA) Project conducted an in-depth investigation of possible Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to lunar surface transportation systems capable of sending both astronauts and large masses of cargo to the Moon and back. This investigation was conducted from the perspective of a private company operating the transportation system for a profit. The goal of this company was to provide an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 25% to its shareholders. The technical aspect of the study began with a wide open design space that included nuclear rockets and tether systems as possible propulsion systems. Based on technical, political, and business considerations, the architecture was quickly narrowed down to a traditional chemical rocket using liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. However, three additional technologies were identified for further investigation: aerobraking, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and a mass driver on the lunar surface. These three technologies were identified because they reduce the mass of propellant used. Operational costs are the largest expense with propellant cost the largest contributor. ISRU, the production of materials using resources on the Moon, was considered because an Earth to Orbit (ETO) launch cost of 1600 per kilogram made taking propellant from the Earth's surface an expensive proposition. The use of an aerobrake to circularize the orbit of a vehicle coming from the Moon towards Earth eliminated 3, 100 meters per second of velocity change (Delta V), eliminating almost 30% of the 11,200 m/s required for one complete round trip. The use of a mass driver on the lunar surface, in conjunction with an ISRU production facility, would reduce the amount of propellant required by eliminating using propellant to take additional propellant from the lunar surface to Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). However, developing and operating such a system required further study to identify if it was cost effective. The vehicle was modeled using the Simulated Probabilistic Parametric Lunar Architecture Tool (SPPLAT), which incorporated the disciplines of Weights and Sizing, Trajectories, and Cost. This tool used ISRU propellant cost, Technology Reduction Factor (a dry weight reduction due to improved technology), and vehicle engine specific impulse as inputs. Outputs were vehicle dry weight, total propellant used per trip, and cost to charge the customer in order to guarantee an IRR of 25%. SPPLAT also incorporated cost estimation error, weight estimation error, market growth, and ETO launch cost as uncertainty variables. Based on the stipulation that the venture be profitable, the price to charge the customer was highly dependent on ISRU propellant cost and relatively insensitive to the other inputs. The best estimate of ISRU cost is 1000/kg, and results in a price to charge the customer of 2600/kg of payload. If ISRU cost can be reduced to 160/kg, the price to the customer is reduced to just 800/kg of payload. Additionally, the mass driver was only cost effective at an ISRU propellant cost greater than 250/kg, although it reduced total propellant used by 35%. In conclusion, this mission is achievable with current technology, but is only profitable with greater research into the enabling technology of ISRU propellant production.
Alexander Romannikov
Bechtel R.
Chen Tairong
Cormier T.
Kalaver S.
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