Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Nov 1998
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998sct..conf..187m&link_type=abstract
Proceedings of the 6th Spacecraft Charging Conference. November 2-6, 1998. AFRL Science Center, Hanscom AFB, MA, USA., p.187-191
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The Leonid meteor shower is expected to hit the Earth's atmosphere with high flux in mid November, 1998 and 1999. The flux will probably be the largest in thirty years. It may hit again with potentially nearly the same order of magnitude in November, 2000. The meteoric dust flux is expected to be more intense and encompass shorter time, the dust velocities will be faster than any other meteor storm, and the mass distribution will favor larger particle masses than normal. In anticipation of this upcoming meteor events, we endeavor to estimate the degree of possible adverse effects of the Leonid on spacecraft systems. We calculate the impact probability, the impact penetration depth, the amount of ionization generated upon impact, discuss possible impacts of the ionization on spacecraft systems and the scientific measurements onboard, suggest two potentially hazardous scenarios of sudden discharges caused by meteor impacts, and compare the charge production rate with the ones during an average annual Leonid shower.
Lai Shu T.
McNeil William J.
Murad Edmond
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