Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsm33e..06w&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SM33E-06
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7509 Corona, 7519 Flares, 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7536 Solar Activity Cycle (2162)
Scientific paper
A review is presented of work aimed at understanding solar flare statistics, with emphasis on the well known flare power-law size distribution. Although avalanche models are perhaps the favoured model to describe flare statistics, their physical basis is unclear, and they are divorced from developing ideas in large-scale reconnection theory. An alternative model, aimed at reconciling large-scale reconnection models with solar flare statistics, is revisited. The solar flare waiting-time distribution has also attracted recent attention. Observed waiting-time distributions are described, together with what they might tell us about the flare phenomenon. Finally, a practical application of flare statistics to flare prediction is described in detail, including the results of a year of automated (web-based) predictions from the method.
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