Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Nov 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.500..401b&link_type=abstract
In: Proceedings of Asteroids, Comets, Meteors - ACM 2002. International Conference, 29 July - 2 August 2002, Berlin, Germany. Ed
Mathematics
Logic
Nea, Virtual Impactor, Monte Carlo Method
Scientific paper
We propose an iterative method for finding virtual impactors of a near-Earth asteroid, for a specific close encounter with the Earth. It combines the Monte Carlo sampling technique with some topologic analysis performed in the six-dimensional space of initial confidence region and on the target plane at the time of impact. The idea is to isolate, as closely as possible, the subregion containing all virtual impactors. If we keep traces on the size of the isolated area, we can estimate the associated impact probability and the related hazard quantities. The total number of sampling points is several orders of magnitude lower than the inverse of the impact probability to be computed, as it might be expected from a standard Monte Carlo approach. The efficiency and convergence of the method are discussed and several examples on real NEAs are given.
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