Prediction of solar activity: Role of long-term variations

Details Prediction of solar activity: Role of long-term variations Prediction of solar activity: Role of long-term variations

Jul 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002jgra..107.1113k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics), Volume 107, Issue A7, pp. SSH 3-1, CiteID 1113, DOI 10.1029/2001JA000247

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

4

Interplanetary Physics: Solar Cycle Variations (7536), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Activity Cycle (2162), And Astronomy: Solar And Stellar Variability

Scientific paper

From the near-zero values during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), the maxima Rz(max) of smoothed sunspot numbers reached values of ~140 by cycle 0-1 (~1750) and then had long-term fluctuations (high values for 3-5 cycles, followed by low values for 3-5 cycles, differing by as much as 50 units), on which random fluctuations were superposed. There is some indication of a ~100-year oscillation that might have peaked near cycle 20 at Rz(max) values near ~150. If this oscillation persists, the cycles in the next 50 years or so may have lower and lower R(max), perhaps dropping below 100, and recovering thereafter. The aa(min) values, and to a lesser degree, the Rz(min) values, are also expected to follow the same pattern.

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