Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment

Details Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment

2000-01-24

arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0001414v1

Contemp.Phys. 41 (2000) 143-153

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

17 pages, standard LaTeX; to be published in Contemporary Physics

Scientific paper

10.1080/001075100181105

Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age [J. R. Gott III, Nature 363, 315 (1993)] and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Though Gott's proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it.

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