Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics – Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics
Scientific paper
2009-09-14
MNRAS Lett, 401, 1, L15-L18 (2010)
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics
5 pages, expanded discussion of Lambda and of blind anlysis, added refs. Matches version to appear in MNRAS Letters
Scientific paper
10.1111/j.1745-3933.2009.00776.x
Cosmologists will soon be in a unique position. Observational noise will gradually be replaced by cosmic variance as the dominant source of uncertainty in an increasing number of observations. We reflect on the ramifications for the discovery and verification of new models. If there are features in the full data set that call for a new model, there will be no subsequent observations to test that model's predictions. We give specific examples of the problem by discussing the pitfalls of model discovery by prior adjustment in the context of dark energy models and inflationary theories. We show how the gradual release of data can mitigate this difficulty, allowing anomalies to be identified, and new models to be proposed and tested. We advocate that observers plan for the frugal release of data from future cosmic variance limited observations.
Starkman Glenn D.
Trotta Roberto
Vaudrevange Pascal M.
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