Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
2005-09-16
AIP Conf.Proc.822:34-39,2006
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
Based on a talk given in the 1st Crisis in Cosmology Conference (CCC-1), June 23-25, 2005 at Moncao, Portugal. To appear in th
Scientific paper
10.1063/1.2189120
In this talk, I argue that the method of analysing the m-z data of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) by assuming exotic energy densities with strange equations of state is misleading and the reasonable remaining option is to make a model-independent analysis of SNe data, without reference to the energy densities. Using this cosmographic method, we address an important question relevant to cosmology: Was there a decelerating past for the universe? To answer this, the Bayes's probability theory is employed, which is the most appropriate tool for quantifying our knowledge when it changes through the acquisition of new data. The cosmographic approach helps to sort out models which were always accelerating from those which decelerated for at least some time in the period of interest. Bayesian model comparison technique is used to discriminate these rival hypotheses with the aid of recent releases of supernova data. It is argued that the lessons learned using Bayesian theory are extremely valuable to avoid frequent U-turns in cosmology.
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