An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probability

Details An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probability An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probability

2010-03-29

arxiv.org/abs/1003.5544v3

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

Revised version, 18 pages, five pictures of Keynes

Scientific paper

The book A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. It contains a critical assessment of the foundations of probability and of the current statistical methodology. As a modern reader, we review here the aspects that are most related with statistics, avoiding a neophyte's perspective on the philosophical issues. In particular, the book is quite critical of the Bayesian approach and we examine the arguments provided by Keynes, as well as the alternative he proposes. This review does not subsume the scholarly study of Aldrich (2008a) relating Keynes with the statistics community of the time.

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