The waiting time for m mutations

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

We consider a model of a population of fixed size N in which each individual gets replaced at rate one and each individual experiences a mutation at rate \mu. We calculate the asymptotic distribution of the time that it takes before there is an individual in the population with m mutations. Several different behaviors are possible, depending on how \mu changes with N. These results have applications to the problem of determining the waiting time for regulatory sequences to appear and to models of cancer development.

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