The Utility of Reliability and Survival

Details The Utility of Reliability and Survival The Utility of Reliability and Survival

2009-07-22

arxiv.org/abs/0907.3944v1

Statistics

Methodology

Scientific paper

Reliability (survival analysis, to biostatisticians) is a key ingredient for mak- ing decisions that mitigate the risk of failure. The other key ingredient is utility. A decision theoretic framework harnesses the two, but to invoke this framework we must distinguish between chance and probability. We describe a functional form for the utility of chance that incorporates all dispositions to risk, and pro- pose a probability of choice model for eliciting this utility. To implement the model a subject is asked to make a series of binary choices between gambles and certainty. These choices endow a statistical character to the problem of utility elicitation. The workings of our approach are illustrated via a live example in- volving a military planner. The material is general because it is germane to any situation involving the valuation of chance.

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