Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Details Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

2007-01-18

arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0701527v1

Phys.Rev.Lett.98:131103,2007

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

10 pages 1 table 3 figures

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.131103

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.

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