The Production of Astronomers: A Model for Future Surpluses?

Details The Production of Astronomers: A Model for Future Surpluses? The Production of Astronomers: A Model for Future Surpluses?

Jan 1991

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991pasp..103...90t&link_type=abstract

Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific v.103, p.90

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

4

Sociology Of Astronomy-Education Of Astronomers-Surplus Of Astronomers. Astronomers

Scientific paper

I derive and apply a quantitative model for the surplus training of new Ph. D.s in astronomy. One key feature of the model is the decoupling of the production of new astronomers from the demand for their services on receipt of the doctorate. This assumption simply reflects one unusual aspect of our profession, that the consumers of scientists colleges, universities, and research institutions do not regulate production of new Ph. D.s via changing demand. In fact, these institutions benefit from overproduction of Ph. D.s. Thus, while there is significant support for the production of astronomers, the demand for the product is weak. In consequence, the mathematical formulation for surplus production of astronomers is similar to that for pollution models. I discuss future surpluses for a few scenarios: increased research funding, modest or major retirements, and no change from present conditions. Under no reasonable circumstances do I predict a future shortage of astronomers. In contrast, a surplus of new scientists is very robust, intrinsic to the system, advantageous to influential segments of the profession, and likely to increase over the long term.

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