Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsm31b2098r&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SM31B-2098
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
[2435] Ionosphere / Ionospheric Disturbances, [7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections
Scientific paper
The solar wind through the transpolar Hill-Siscoe potential drives R1 currents throught the ionosphere according to the Nopper-Carovillano ionospheric potential solver. When these currents create sufficiently large eastward equatorial electric fields near twilight plasma instabilities are triggered. In this presentation the yearly (1998-2009) distribution functions of the pertinent solar wind parameters are determined as well as those of the associated Hill-Siscoe potentials. The latter distributions allow the determination of the threshold probability for a given potential value to occur which closely follows an exponential dependence with the Hill-Siscoe potential. The yearly rate of expected triggered events varied from 41% to < 1%, tracking the annual sunspot number. This suggests that a running 6-12 month probability distribution of the Hill-Siscoe potential could be useful for forecast purposes. Yearly scatterplots of IMFBz vs IMFBy show circular-type structure during the more active years consistent with the presence of CME's as described by Russell [2001].
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