Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009aj....138.1998d&link_type=abstract
The Astronomical Journal, Volume 138, Issue 6, pp. 1998-2001 (2009).
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
14
Sun: Activity, Sun: General
Scientific paper
Using linear regression techniques and correlation analysis, the predictive power of Ohl's method is shown to satisfy one of the following relationships. Either a successful prediction of cycle amplitude can be obtained if the correlation between the minimum aa geomagnetic index in the declining phase of a solar cycle and the sunspot maximum of the succeeding cycle becomes stronger, or the prediction error exceeds the expected prediction error if the correlation becomes weaker. The correlation coefficient has a declining secular variation, which leads to a weakening trend in predictive power, as well as a 44 year periodicity that may explain why the prediction method did not work well for solar cycle 23. As this finding only emerged twice in the ~100 year period studied, this 44 year periodicity may occur with a degree of uncertainty and may therefore need to be checked in the future. Two quantities, namely a prediction parameter and the prediction index, are proposed to analyze predictive power. Using the above properties, the success probability of a prediction result can be analyzed in advance.
Du Zhan-Le
Li Renwei
Wang Hua-Ning
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